Why having developers to create detailed estimates to predict software project due dates is a flawed approach

My experience with organizations across 3 companies who all depended on developer estimates to predict the future is that they all tended to focus on getting to done where done is code that is kinda done but lacks a lot of maturation due to pressure to just lay down code and meet the date.

This article goes into on why detailed estimates are a sub-optimal way to predict the future.

The article recommends using durations and staffing levels of previous projects to predict how long future projects are going to take, rather than trying to predict the future by mapping out a huge pile of detailed tasks and then Gantt charting out a date. Which obviously isn't going to work that well if it is a really new thing with a really new team, but if it is a similar project to a prior project done by that team, using a comparable prior project duration seems like it would be helpful.

I've yet to work at a company where prior project durations were considered in the planning process and I think it would have helped all 3 of the past organizations I worked in.